The iPhone came out in 2007. Within a decade, everyone had a smartphone.
In the decades leading up to 2007, average US GDP growth was about 3% per year. Since then, it’s been about the same. Yet, from the point of view of anyone in the distant past, we carry magic portals in our pockets. These portals can connect us with anyone, anywhere, on-demand. The same portals put vast amounts of human knowledge within thumb’s reach.
We like our portals. From 2007 to today, average time spent looking at phone screens went from mere minutes to about 4 hours—a quarter of our waking hours.
In a sense, boredom died with the smartphone. Every moment of downtime—whether sitting on a train, waiting at a doctor's office, or standing in line at a grocery store—we can take refuge in our phones.
But the shift runs deeper. Dating changed. Today, about half of new couples meet through apps. The dating pool isn’t “who you know” anymore; it’s everyone. That shift is massive. Already, we see a surge in new couples crossing racial, religious, and economic lines.
Phones even changed our relationship to the physical world. "Getting lost" used to be a thing. Map apps ended that.
Even if it didn't show up in the productivity statistics, smartphones transformed our lives.
Could AI be like phones? What will AI transform first–the economy or our daily lives?