AI Econ
"First thing we have to observe is GDP growth…That's the real marker…Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%."
- Satya Nadella, 2025 (source)

US Annual GDP Growth (1961-2023)

US GDP growth averaged about 3% per year for decades preceding the introduction of the transformer. So far, in the post-transformer era, annual GDP growth has remained similar. Will that change? Or, could AI be like smartphones—transformative even if its not obvious from the productivity statistics?